The collectible market in general is incredibly interesting. You have people pay hundreds, thousands, and even millions of dollars for something as simple as a Mickey Mantle Baseball Card or a stamp from 1847 which went for $12.6 million and $9.6 million respectively.
If you dive deeper, you’ll find people who collect shoes, coins, old toys, and the list goes on. One collectible market that has continued to gain popularity and had a recent pricing boom in 2020 was Pokémon cards.
The pandemic mixed with OG Pokémon collectors (20-35 year old’s) having kids who started collecting created a booming new market. So while a large number of 80’s and 90’s born kids had a Pokémon card binder when they were a kid, the Pokémon boom in 2020 made everyone start to look at their cards differently.
Because of this boom, people started paying a tremendous amount more for cards than they had ever before. And thus, Pokémon card “investing” was born.
So in this article, we will dive deeper into Pokémon card investing, if you should do it, and what considerations you should have before jumping in.
Let’s get to it!
Why Do People Think Pokémon Cards are a Good Investment?
This is probably a good place to start. As mentioned above, Pokémon cards boomed in price during the pandemic.
Part of it was being locked down and spending more time looking through old stuff. Part of it was millennials having kids who started collecting, which gave them a nostalgic slap in the face. And part of it was Logan Paul setting a world record buying Pokémon cards.
All of these factors and potentially a few others fueled a major increase in spending for Pokémon. And as people started collecting again, the price for cards (especially vintage ones) skyrocketed.
So anyone holding a 1st edition Charizard all of a sudden went from a few hundred dollars to a few thousand. Enter in the popularity of grading on top of that and there was a possibility of that few thousand dollar card turning into tens of thousands and potentially over a hundred thousand dollars! This unfortunately isn’t every card but there is certainly a chance that your vintage collection is worth a few hundred or even a few thousand dollars.
And while the market has cooled off a little bit, Pokémon card prices are still a lot higher than they were before that point.
So does that mean they are a good investment now and into the future?
Before we answer that, let’s jump into a few different ways people are investing in Pokémon cards and how to think about them.
Different Types of Pokémon Products to Invest In
Serious collectors and Pokémon card investors don’t treat all types of products the same way. It can be thought of similar to the stock market. There are different stocks in the stock market and ways to buy and sell them.
There are expensive blue chip stocks, penny stocks, and some you may hold for a long time and others you may want to flip quickly. Very similar to collecting and trading Pokémon cards.
Below are some of the main ways to invest and how to think about each of these items.
Raw Pokémon Cards For Investment
Now, I’ll start by saying raw Pokémon cards are probably the lowest on most peoples list of Pokémon card “investing”. The main reason is that prices for raw cards are not as fixed and steady as the others below. Let’s look at an example.
Let’s say you have a vintage lightly played Base Set Charizard. It’s a great card that a lot of people love (myself included). However, these were printed quite a bit upon release, so they aren’t terribly hard to get a hold of in lightly played shape.
So this example is a 25 year old cool card that is pretty sought after. Would it be a good “investment”?
Well, considering how much it was worth 25 years ago, the answer would be yes! You could have picked up a Charizard for easily under $30 in 1999 and on average they now go for $150+.
They would inevitably become scarcer and harder to come by as some would get lost, damaged or otherwise. That being said, would you plan on holding these for another 25 years though to see that kind of return? Possibly so, but that’s a very long time.
Then you have to ask yourself if it would that perform better than other forms of investment? More thoughts on that further down in the article!
Slabbed Pokémon Cards For Investment
As far as Pokémon card investing goes, slabbed or graded cards are far more favored than raw cards. Pokémon cards with a higher grade are not only rarer than their raw counterparts, but they will sell for a lot more as well.
Let’s take the Base Set Charizard example above. As you can see from the above chart, the higher the grade, the more expensive that card becomes.
If we look into why that is the case, the population report (looking at PSA in this case), there have been 53,000+ Base Set Charizard’s graded and authenticated through their website at the time of writing this article. That means there is a TON more outside of that list that others own.
If we look into the higher grades, here is what the chart showed at that time.
| Grade 7 | Grade 8 | Grade 9 | Grade 10 | |
| Base Set Charizard | 9,243 | 10,482 | 7,294 | 465 |
What this means is that my Charizard in its raw form is 1 of 53,000 (just that have gone through PSA). If I get a 7, 8, or 9, all of a sudden it’s now 1 of 7,000-11,000. And if I find one that gets a 10? Now I have one of only 465 PSA 10 Charizard’s.
Rarity and exclusivity of any collectible is a major factor in price. And Pokémon cards are no different.
Hence, slabbed Pokémon cards are more often better investments than their raw counterparts. So if you have nice expensive Pokémon cards and would like to hold them for a while, grading them is a great option.
Is there another option outside of these two though?
Sealed Pokémon Product For Investment
As far as most Pokémon collectors are concerned, sealed product is the gold standard for Pokémon card investing.
They would consider raw cards is akin to investing in single companies or stocks. Sealed product then is likened to investing in a diversified portfolio.
And since most people buy to open, there will be more interest in older sets and less product available as the years go on. So very desirable sets with very desirable cards will inevitably get harder to come by and become more expensive as time goes on.
This however is assuming that Pokémon and Pokémon cards will continue to remain popular as the years go on. But I digress, more on that later in the article.
To use our same example above, the Charizard came from the Original Base Set Pokémon set. The booster boxes that they originally sold in 1999 had 36 packs and retailed for $118.
That same Base Set Booster Box now sells on average for ~$12,000! Despite it being random, the allure of what could potentially be in those boxes and packs still outweighs having even a grade 10 Charizard outright!
Just to clarify though, all sealed product certainly has value, especially depending on the packs inside. Most investors would agree though that Booster Boxes though are the most investable Pokémon product there is.
If you have other thoughts, add your thoughts in the comments form below!
Rule(s) of Thumb for Investing
There were a few themes that are worth touching on in all of the Pokémon products mentioned above. When considering investing into Pokémon product, these rules can help you make the best decisions for you now and into the future!
The Rarer the Better
It sounds obvious, but rarity and price go hand-in-hand. If we look at the list of most expensive Charizards, we will find that several of them are specialty release and were therefore very hard to come by.
So when considering holding onto something for a long time, finding the rarer items will typically yield more result in the long run.
So is it worth “investing” in common and uncommon cards that are worth less than $5? And will you see much return from that? Probably not.
Will it be worth hanging onto rare holographic cards, highly graded slabs, or old booster boxes? I’d say it’s not the worst way to spend some money!
One good way to check true rarity of Pokémon cards is by checking the PSA website. Simply go to a card you are interested in and see how many have been graded and what grades they have. Check this along with the actual price of the card can give you a good idea of it!
If it’s a cheap card, then there won’t be a lot of people rushing to grade it. Anything of decent value though will have a certain number of graded versions so that you can see how rare it really is!
Rarity and Condition Go Hand-In-Hand
Yes, I did just say rarity and price go hand-in-hand above. However, condition has the same effect on the rarity and therefore the price of a card.
In looking at the Base Set Charizard examples above, there is a reason that a grade 10 Charizard goes for exponentially more than any less grade or raw version. Because it is in better condition. An in that condition it is exponentially rarer than all others (despite it being the same card).
While this is always true, vintage Pokémon cards favor this rule much more heavily. Modern are a very different story. Let’s jump into that now.
Vintage vs. Modern Pokémon Card Investing
When considering investing in Pokémon cards, it’s important to know that Vintage cards and Modern cards should not be treated the same way. If we look at pricing movement of the newest release cards vs vintage, we will see a pretty big difference.
All Pokémon cards fluctuate with the market in general. If the market is good, lots of people have jobs and there is discretionary spending that can go to things like Pokémon cards. If the market in general is down, then Pokémon card pricing will decrease as well.
When we look at vintage cards though, we can see that they tend to be much more steady in their pricing. Modern cards can have a pretty tremendous fluctuation, especially if it’s a new and popular set or card.
Let’s look at THE chase card of the Sword & Shield set, the Umbreon VMAX Alt Art. Since its release in August of 2021, this card has gone from $220, up to over $600, and back down to $475. While this card is the most extreme example, there are other modern cards like it.
While there is some fluctuation in vintage, you don’t tend to see drastic immediate changes like the below. I say that as a warning to be careful about buying into “hypes” as they can change quickly.
Personal experience. I bought a PSA 10 Umbreon Vmax as prices were climbing. The price got as high as $1,600 so I bought mine for $1,200. As of right now, it sells for $800. Good thing I do it for fun, right?
Let’s get into what I consider the biggest difference in modern and vintage Pokémon cards.
Biggest Difference in Modern vs. Vintage Pokémon Card Investing
So what do I consider the biggest difference in modern and vintage Pokémon cards? The fact that there is even a market to do Pokémon card investing right now. That was not a thought in anyone’s minds 20 years ago.
Pokémon packs were bought to rip, play with, and trade. There were VERY few people who put them in a binder and didn’t touch them. It’s a big reason why there is such a huge premium on grade 10 vintage cards.
Today though? It’s seemingly more common for kids to have sleeves and binders that they collect their cards in rather than play with. Not only that, but millenial-ish adults are starting to collect again and save cards, packs, slabs, and sealed items like never before.
So cards that were released from 2020 to today have a MUCH larger quantity of high quality, untouched cards that people are storing away.
What Does That Mean For Pokémon Card Investing?
My guess is that modern cards of today won’t have the same level of increase as vintage cards over the next 25 years. They will still increase, but the amount of actual cards printed and kept in good condition massively trumps vintage.
One positive factor for modern cards is that the pull rates are incredibly low. The massively popular set Evolving Skies has an alternate name of Evolving Cries because of this.
While a Base Set Charizard had about a 1 in 110 pack chance of being pulled, modern cards are more around 1 of every several hundred to even over 1000 pull rate chance! So the major chase cards are still a little tougher to come by and should grow in pricing over time.
That being said, the kids of today will likely collect cards that are being released today. So that market will still be there. I just don’t think it will look quite the same as vintage cards to today.
So Are Pokémon Cards a Good Investment?
When it comes to looking at Pokémon cards as an investment, the first consideration should be if Pokémon will remain popular for the years to come. If they aren’t popular and cards and other items aren’t selling, then the entire investment opportunity would shrivel up.
Well according to Wikipedia, “Pokémon has been estimated to be the world’s highest-grossing media franchise“. On top of that, Pokémon has been a major part of kids pop culture for 25 years strong. So while no-one can predict the future, Pokémon has a pretty strong track record in that sense.
So investment when it comes to toys, games, media franchises, and otherwise, Pokémon looks pretty darn good.
The next question though is how Pokémon cards actually stack up to what others may consider standard investing opportunities. Well, those who had decent collections when they were young saw some pretty serious return when the boom hit. However, that’s only at the boom, which hadn’t happened like that in 25 years of Pokémon cards being around.
It’s also hard to say how much was spent originally obtaining those packs. After all, they were still about $3 per pack when they released. Then if we compare spent dollars to what is earned now, was it a good return? I’d still say generally, yes!
Was it a good return next to a more standard investment like stocks, bonds, real estate, 401k, or otherwise over 25 years? Likely not. And frankly, the data has only started to be collected on these recently, so we don’t have near the data on card pricing like we do for other investments.
So should you swap your entire investment portfolio for Pokémon cards? Probably not.
Is it still a fun way to collect some cards while keeping what is and has been a pretty liquid item? I’d definitely say so.
Summary
Ultimately, no-one knows what the future will hold when it comes to Pokémon card investing. I do believe that Pokémon is generally popular and interesting enough that there will always be a market for it.
The fact that it has made it through two generations now makes me think it won’t be going anywhere. Will there be another boom though? Should we consider spending some money on Pokémon cards?
My two cents is that there are definitely worse ways to spend money. And if you generally enjoy doing it in the first place, then you will find yourself in a good place regardless.
Thanks for reading!
If you happen to be looking to sell, send me an email at [email protected] and check out my other article!
Wondering if Pokémon cards are a good investment? Check out my other article here!
Wondering if you have a fake Pokémon card or want to know how to identify them? Look no further.